Baku analysts assessed the consequences of the attack on Nakhchivan for relations with Iran.
The drone attack on the Nakhchivan Autonomous Republic was likely deliberate, but Azerbaijan will initially limit itself to diplomatic and political measures, avoiding direct military escalation, analysts in Baku believe.
As "Caucasian Knot" reported, one drone crashed on the territory of the airport terminal of the Nakhchivan Autonomous Republic, the other - near a school in the village of Shekerabad. The airport building was damaged. Four people were injured in the drone attack on the Nakhchivan Autonomous Republic, their condition is stable. The Azerbaijani Foreign Minister demanded an explanation from Iran, and a member of parliament called on the neighboring country to apologize for the drone attack.
Amid worsening relations between Iran and the United States, Baku announced its refusal to allow its territory to be used for strikes against the neighboring country, and Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev expressed his readiness to help reduce tensions. Analysts consider Azerbaijan's position on the conflict in Iran pragmatic.
Analysts call Iran's attack on Nakhchivan deliberate
The Iranian military's airstrike on Azerbaijan's civilian infrastructure in the Nakhchivan Autonomous Republic (NAR) is beyond doubt, and attempts by Iranian officials to refute this and blame it on third parties seeking to "create discord between the two countries" are unfounded, Shahin Hajiyev, senior analyst at Turan's Analytical Service, told a "Caucasian Knot" correspondent.
Research of drone debris will inevitably reveal their origin, and no "third countries" will agree to such a senseless undertaking, he is confident.
The analyst believes that Azerbaijan will respond harshly, but for now will limit itself to diplomatic demarches and political measures, refraining from a military response. Military steps cannot be ruled out if Iran attempts further strikes.
However, in his opinion, judging by the way Iran denies its involvement, Tehran will not risk an outright military escalation, since in that case, it could face the implementation of the Shusha Declaration on mutual military support between Azerbaijan and Turkey in the event of an attack on either of them.
Iran's Deputy Foreign Minister Kazem Gharibabadi, in an interview with AnewZ TV, stated that the Islamic Republic did not strike Azerbaijan amid reports of drone attacks on Nakhchivan International Airport today, March 5. "We are not targeting our neighboring countries," Gharibabadi said. He added that Iran's policy is to strike only the military bases of its adversaries, including the United States and the "Zionist regime." "We have stated from the very beginning: if there are any military bases in the region and they are used to attack Iran, we will strike them. "This is our policy," Haqqin.Az quoted him as saying.
Hajiyev believes that Baku will insist on an apology from Iran, an investigation, and punishment for those responsible. If Iran denies its innocence, this could lead to a curtailment of political and economic relations, or at least a reduction to a minimum. But, in any case, the analyst believes that Azerbaijan will increase security measures on the border with Iran, Hajiyev believes.
He noted that, by order of Ilham Aliyev, the armed forces have already been placed on high alert.
Reviewing the AZAL plane crash and Baku's demand for an apology from Russia and punishment for those responsible, the analyst noted that the damage to the airliner over Grozny was unintentional. In this case, Iranian UAVs deliberately and specifically attacked Nakhchivan Airport, since there were no military facilities nearby.
It is difficult to determine who gave the order to strike the NAR? Was it authorized at the highest level, or was the decision made by a mid-level commander who believed he could “intimidate” Azerbaijan in this way.
Another question is that, given the complete confusion in Iran’s political and military leadership, it is difficult to determine who gave the order to strike the NAR? Was it authorized at the highest level, or was the decision made by a mid-level commander who believed he could “intimidate” Azerbaijan in this way. However, for Azerbaijan, it makes no difference now. Baku will demand an apology from Iran, an investigation, and punishment for those responsible. Until this is done, relations will not normalize,” Hajiyev continued.
At the same time, he believes that in the current situation, the Iranian authorities will evade and deny their guilt. However, after the cessation of hostilities, if the regime remains in Iran, it will weaken and will be forced to seek the restoration of previous relations with Azerbaijan.
Political observer Tapdyg Farhadoglu also believes the strikes on the NAR were deliberate.
“Iran was not attacked from the north, so the Iranians will not be able to claim that drones accidentally or mistakenly flew into the territory of the NAR,” the analyst said in a conversation with a “Caucasian Knot” correspondent.
In his opinion, the claims that have appeared in the Iranian media that the attack could have been carried out by a “third party,” and in particular Israel, are also inappropriate, since an examination of the debris will reveal the manufacturer of the drones.
He believes that, as in the case of the crashed AZAL plane, the Azerbaijani side will seek Iran's admission of guilt, an investigation, and punishment of those responsible.
“Azerbaijan has already achieved the fulfillment of Baku's demands in relations with Iran. In January 2023, an armed attack was carried out on the Azerbaijani embassy in Tehran, resulting in the death of one employee and the wounding of two others. The Iranians evaded "from an objective investigation. But Baku stood its ground. Azerbaijan suspended the embassy's activities, recalled the ambassador and staff, and diplomatic relations were on the brink of rupture. Ultimately, the Iranians sentenced the attacker to death, and the execution was carried out in the presence of Azerbaijani diplomats," Farhadoglu said.
On January 27, 2023, the Azerbaijani embassy in Tehran was attacked, killing the head of security, Orkhan Asgarov. Two other guards were injured, and the attacker was detained. Following this, Azerbaijan completely suspended the embassy's diplomatic activities and evacuated its staff. However, the Azerbaijani Consulate General in Tabriz continued to operate. The embassy's operations were resumed on July 15, 2024. He suggested that the order to attack Nakhchivan could have come from groups within Iran's military leadership hostile to Azerbaijan.
"Azerbaijan has not had any problems with Iran's political leadership, at least its wing headed by President Masoud Pezeshkian. On the contrary, Pezeshkian has visited Baku several times. It is noteworthy that just this morning, the Iranian Foreign Ministry requested Baku's assistance in evacuating Iranian diplomats from Lebanon, and the Azerbaijani authorities expressed their readiness to send a separate plane for them. And it was against the backdrop of these agreements that a treacherous attack was launched against the NAR. The Iranian elite has always had supporters of a hostile attitude towards independent Azerbaijan, viewing it as a "province" of Iran," Farhadoglu said.
If further attacks follow from Iran, and in particular against Azerbaijan's oil and gas infrastructure, Baku will respond with military strikes against positions in Iran
In his opinion, Azerbaijan is taking measures to strengthen its combat readiness, but for now it will refrain from military strikes and limit itself to diplomatic demarches and possible restrictions on economic ties.
“Judging by the way Iran denies its involvement in the attack, they also do not intend to continue the strikes, realizing that their position will look obviously wrong. Moreover, this could cause unrest among tens of millions of Azerbaijanis in Iran, who still generally remain loyal to the state. It is characteristic that Iranian Azerbaijanis in exile in the West, who have maintained a neutral position since the beginning of military operations in Iran, after the attacks on the NAR, lashed out at the Iranian authorities on social media and called on their compatriots to condemn Tehran’s actions. However, if new attacks follow from Iran, and in "If there are any attacks on Azerbaijan's oil and gas infrastructure in particular, Baku will respond with military strikes against positions in Iran. Azerbaijan will receive Western support, since supplies to 10 EU countries depend on the normal functioning of Azerbaijan's gas transportation system," the analyst said.
He also pointed out that the military alliance between Azerbaijan and Turkey, enshrined in the Shusha Declaration, is a deterrent for Iran.
The analyst noted that Turkish Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan has already called his Azerbaijani counterpart, Jeyhun Bayramov, and expressed his readiness to provide all necessary support.
In his opinion, the strikes on the NAR will not affect the evacuation from Iran.
“The evacuation is being carried out through the Astara checkpoint, which is located on the other side of the Azerbaijani-Iranian border,” the expert noted.
However, he continued, damage to the NAR airport will create difficulties for travelers from NAR to Baku and back. Air travel is the only means of transport between the region and the rest of the country. Bus routes through Iran have also been suspended since February 28. Now, according to the agreements between Azerbaijan and Turkey, the airport of the Turkish border city of Igdir will be used for flights between Azerbaijan and the NAR. However, it is located approximately 150 km
Azerbaijan may use economic pressure
According to the director of the Center for South Caucasus Studies, political scientist Farhad Mamedov, the attack on the territory of the NAR “was not accidental, since the target was a strategically important facility - the international airport.”
Azerbaijan, he believes, has demonstrated a neutral position regarding the conflict around Iran in recent years and has not allowed its territory to be used for actions against Tehran.
Azerbaijan will certainly begin consultations with Turkey in accordance with the Shusha Declaration and will take measures solely for its own defense.
According to the analyst, current events may be related to an internal governance crisis in Iran and the uncertainty regarding which forces are making decisions amid political turbulence.
“It is unclear how and by whom decisions to launch strikes are being made. Azerbaijan will likely begin consultations with Turkey in accordance with the Shusha Declaration and will take measures solely for its own defense. Arab countries facing Iranian attacks have not yet taken retaliatory measures to Iranian attacks… Turkey did the same after an Iranian missile was shot down in Turkish airspace. We must be patient and calm, no matter how difficult it may be. “As practice shows, Azerbaijan can withstand a blow and take retaliatory measures when necessary,” Mammadov wrote on his Facebook page*.
The attack on the NAR could be a serious turning point in bilateral relations.
According to Togrul Juvarli, a member of the Azerbaijan National Public Committee for European Integration, the further development of the situation will depend on whether Tehran admits responsibility for the incident and apologizes.
“Otherwise, the attack on the NAR could be a serious turning point in bilateral relations. Azerbaijan will likely strengthen its defenses in the south, and its armed forces have already been put on high alert. A freeze on trade relations between the two countries could also follow. "This will be sensitive for Iran, given that shipping in the Persian Gulf basin is paralyzed," Juvarly told a "Caucasian Knot" correspondent.
At the same time, he said, if military tensions persist, the implementation of the TRIPP transport corridor could also be postponed.
In August 2025, US President Donald Trump stated that the key issue that was preventing the signing of a peace agreement between Armenia and Azerbaijan, and this is the issue of the Zangezur corridor, has been resolved. The "Caucasian Knot" has prepared a report "Trump Route" (TRIPP): transport corridor through Armenia".
Iran announced an investigation into the strikes on Azerbaijan
It should be noted that on the evening of March 5, at the initiative of Iranian Foreign Minister Seyyed Abbas Araghchi, a telephone conversation took place with Azerbaijani Foreign Minister Jeyhun Bayramov.
During the conversation, Minister Jeyhun Bayramov strongly condemned the drone strikes launched from Iran on the Nakhchivan Autonomous Republic and expressed his categorical protest against these actions, the Azerbaijani Foreign Ministry said in a statement.
Such attacks on Azerbaijani territory grossly violate the norms and principles of international law and contribute to increased tensions in the region.
The Iranian Foreign Minister expressed concern over the drone attack on the territory of the Nakhchivan Autonomous Republic. He reported that the Iranian side, together with military structures, has launched an investigation into the incident. The Iranian minister also wished a speedy recovery to the injured civilians.
"The Iranian side was informed that Azerbaijan expects an apology for the attack, prompt clarification of the investigation's findings, and the adoption of all necessary measures to prevent similar incidents from recurring in the future," the Azerbaijani Foreign Ministry said in a statement.
Translated automatically via Google translate from https://www.kavkaz-uzel.eu/articles/421355
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