Baku analysts explain authorities' silence on plane crash reasons

The absence of statements on the causes of the crash of the Azerbaijan Airlines (AZAL) plane may be explained by the fact that Baku and Moscow are looking for compromise wording of the investigation results.

On January 7, it became known that the decoding of the black boxes was over; and the commission would continue its work in Kazakhstan. On January 29, Khikmet Gadjiev, the Azerbaijani presidential aide, said that the inquiry outcomes of the air crash would be presented to the public "in the near future."

Mekhman Aliev, Director of the “Turan” News Agency, has suggested that the delay in announcing the causes of the crash may be due to discussions underway about the wording acceptable to all the parties. He himself is convinced that "the airliner was shot down by an attack from land."

According to his version, Kazakhstan is seeking to reach a consensus in order to avoid discontent of the interested parties – Azerbaijan and Russia.

"Baku and Moscow will obviously not deny the main reason for the plane destruction – it was shot down by an air defence system ... I think the problem is in Russia now. When Vladimir Putin apologized to Ilham Aliev for the fact that the incident occurred in the Russian airspace, this was actually an admission of the Russian side’s responsibility. But the problem for Russia is who to find guilty of the crash ... It is a big problem for the Kremlin to find the Chechen authorities guilty; it means creating a conflict with Kadyrov ... Therefore, most likely, the announcement of the results is being delayed in order to find the softest possible wording," Mekhman Aliev has explained.

Togrul Djuvarly, a member of the Azeri National Public Committee for European Integration, is inclined to believe that Kazakhstan's statement will reflect a consensus of the three parties involved. In his opinion, Russia will ultimately admit that the plane was unintentionally attacked from land, but this will be "justified" by a "massive attack" by Ukraine.

Tofig Dadashev, an analyst of the NGO "Journalists in Extreme Conditions", believes that the announcement of the inquiry results is being delayed due to the Russia's counteraction.