Analysts rule out revision of Baku-Moscow relations because of plane crash

The toughening of Azerbaijan's of rhetoric towards Russia will not entail any fundamental changes in bilateral relations. At the same time, Moscow has no chances to put pressure on Azerbaijan and force it to abandon its demands in connection with the air crash; and Aliev is using the disaster to demonstrate the independence of his foreign policy.

The "Caucasian Knot" has reported that on December 28, 2024, Vladimir Putin called Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliev and apologized "due to the fact that the tragic incident with the plane occurred in the Russian airspace." After this, Aliev demanded from Russia to admit guilt in the plane crash, punish the perpetrators and pay compensations. On January 6, Aliev criticized the Russian authorities for refusing to admit guilt in the crash of the Azerbaijan Airlines (AZAL) plane.

Despite Ilham Aliev's harsh rhetoric towards Russia in connection with the crash of the AZAL plane, there will be no fundamental changes in bilateral relations, Togrul Djuvarly, a member of the Azerbaijan National Public Committee for European Integration, believes.

"During the past 20 years, Azeri-Russian relations have been based on pragmatism. Azerbaijan used to distance itself from the Eurasian integration projects promoted by Russia, such as the Customs Union, the EAEU (Euro-Asian Economic Union), and haven't joined the CSTO (Collective Security Treaty Organization). At the same time, Baku hasn't moved closer to the NATO and the European Union (EU); and this suited Russia quite well," Mr Djuvarly has explained.

"Compensations will obviously also be paid, but after the official completion of the international investigation, which could drag on for years; and the topic will no longer be on the world news agenda; and Russia will fulfil its obligations without any serious image losses," Togrul Djuvarly has continued.

Along with that, according to his version, Azeri leadership can use this situation for demonstrating its independence and ability to challenge the Kremlin.

Shakhin Gadjiev, an editor of the "Turan" News Agency, also believes that there will be no sharp turn in Azeri-Russian. However, he has noted that the incident with the plane could affect relations between military departments and Azeri-Chechen regional cooperation. However, in general, interstate relations and economic ties will continue, Mr Gadjiev is sure.

The Aliev's tough statements are a demonstration of Baku's independent foreign policy, believes Tofig Dadashev, an analyst at the NGO "Journalists in Extreme Conditions".

According to his story, Russia no longer has any political, economic or military leverage over Azerbaijan. The Kremlin is busy with Ukraine and is therefore losing its international positions, as evidenced by the "surrender" of the pro-Moscow dictator Bashar al-Assad and Russia's actual withdrawal from Syria. Moscow is gradually losing its position in the post-Soviet space as well. Even the leaders of Central Asian countries, seemingly loyal to Moscow, are increasingly expressing dissatisfaction with Russia, Tofig Dadashev has noted.