Analysts in Baku assess chances of escalation of conflict between Iran and Azerbaijan

Tehran will not unleash an armed conflict with Baku, despite the deterioration of relations after the Azerbaijan’s victory in the Karabakh war, Tofig Turkel, an observer of the agency “Turan”, suggests. Aggravation of relations is unprofitable for Tehran, since it has established economic ties with Baku, military expert Natig Djafarli notes.

The “Caucasian Knot” has reported that on September 11, an Azerbaijani police checkpoint began work on the border section of the road between the Armenian cities of Goris and Kapan. Armenian Ombudsperson Arman Tatoyan reports that Azerbaijani policemen stop trucks with Iranian state registration numbers and demand a payment from them. On September 15, it became known about the detention of two Iranian truck drivers transporting cement. The Ministry of Internal Affairs (MIA) of Azerbaijan announced that the Iranian truck drivers were detained for illegally crossing the border.

The Iranian authorities did not accept the Azerbaijan’s victory in the autumn war of 2020, Tofig Turkel, an observer of the agency “Turan”, believes. In addition, the outcome of the war led to the strengthening in Azerbaijan of Turkey, an eternal rival of Iran in the region.

According to Tofig Turkel, Iran was jealous of the results of the second Karabakh war, in which Azerbaijan won using advanced weapons purchased from Turkey and Israel, which Tehran considers its enemy. After that, Iran began to actively come out with political statements in support of Armenia and continued to supply goods to Karabakh.

Iranian Foreign Minister Hossein Amir-Abdollahiyan does not believe that Iran can take military action against Azerbaijan, since “the country is unlikely to be able to resist the military tandem of Azerbaijan with Turkey.”

Iran is anxious about the military victory of Azerbaijan and the accelerated restoration of the liberated territories, suggests Natig Djafarli, a member of the Political Council of the “Republican Alternative” Party. According to him, there are a lot of chances for normalization of relations between the two countries.