Political analysts point to destabilization reasons on Armenian-Azerbaijani border

Azerbaijan is trying to put pressure on Armenia in order to get concessions from it, while Russia is interested in maintaining stability in the region, and not in defending Armenia's interests in specific border sections, Armenian and Russian political analysts have noted.

The "Caucasian Knot" has reported that Armenia and Azerbaijan are systematically exchanging accusations of shelling on the joint border. On July 16 and 17, the Armenian MoD accused Azerbaijani militaries of shelling the village of Eraskh on the border with the Nakhichevan Autonomous Republic (NAR) and the Ararat Region. In the evening on July 19, the Armenian MoD announced that Azerbaijani militaries had shelled the Armenian positions stationed near the village of Eraskh in the Nakhichevan direction.

On July 20, an online discussion on the aggravation of the situation in the Nakhichevan direction of the Armenian-Azerbaijani border was held at the "Article 3" Yerevan Journalism Club, the "Caucasian Knot" correspondent reports.

Azerbaijan is exerting pressure to achieve the signing of a treaty that would fix its military successes, Alexander Iskandaryan, a political analyst and Director of the Caucasus Institute, has stated during the discussion. According to his version, Azerbaijan, in particular, wants to achieve territorial concessions and opening of a corridor from Azerbaijan to Turkey across Nakhichevan.

In his words, Armenia practically has no resources to defend its interests at the negotiating table, and the talks turn into a tool of putting pressure on Armenia. "The interests of Armenia and Russia coincide just partly. They both don't want a big war. The interests of these two countries can't coincide completely. Russia is not interested on who will own a specific border kilometre, on where the border will pass, and who will control the Black Lake. Its mission is to set a border somewhere, and to keep it calm," Mr Iskandaryan has stated.

Russia can be neither pro-Armenian nor pro-Azerbaijani, said Sergey Markedonov, a political analyst and a leading researcher at the Institute of International Studies of the MGIMO (Moscow State Institute of Foreign Relations) of the Russian Ministry of Foreign Affairs (MFA). "Russia is interested that there were no shooting, as instability will lead to outside interference and reduce Russia's weight," Mr Markedonov believes.

This article was originally published on the Russian page of 24/7 Internet agency ‘Caucasian Knot’ on July 20, 2021 at 09:00 pm MSK. To access the full text of the article, click here.