21:08, 10 October 2020

Analysts agree on fragility of ceasefire in Karabakh

Consequences of shelling in Stepanakert on October 5, 2020. Photo: Areg Balayan/ArmGov/PAN Photo/Reuters

The ceasefire agreement in Nagorno-Karabakh offers a chance for a settlement, but does not guarantee a complete stop to the fighting, analysts believe.

The "Caucasian Knot" has reported that foreign ministers of Azerbaijan and Armenia agreed on a ceasefire in the conflict zone from October 10.

Full-scale battles were launched in the Karabakh conflict zone on September 27. According to official data, 31 civilians perished in Azerbaijan, 154 others were wounded. According to the authorities of the NK, 339 soldiers of the Defence Army and 20 civilians perished; and about 90 civilians were wounded.

Stanislav Tarasov, Director of the "Middle East-Caucasus" Research Centre, has noted that the ceasefire agreement can hardly be called a breakthrough, the "Politics Today" reports.

In his opinion, further negotiations of the parties will be difficult and lengthy, but the main thing is that there is some Armenian-Azerbaijani dialogue. Otherwise, the OSCE Minsk Group will have to take decisive steps, as a result of which Nagorno-Karabakh will not return under the Azerbaijan's control, the political has noted.

Vakhtang Maisaya, an expert on the Caucasus, believes that in case of disruption of the ceasefire agreement, regional leaders may get involved into the Karabakh conflict. In his opinion, if the fighting continues, Russia and Turkey may bring their joint peacemaking forces into the conflict zone.

This article was originally published on the Russian page of 24/7 Internet agency ‘Caucasian Knot’ on October 10, 2020 at 11:38 am MSK. To access the full text of the article, click here.