Yerevan analysts outline threats of Karabakh conflict's expansion

The shelling of the Armenian territory has highlighted the risk of involving Russia and Turkey in the Karabakh conflict, the military experts in Yerevan, interviewed by the "Caucasian Knot", believe.

The "Caucasian Knot" has reported that on September 27, warfare began in the Karabakh conflict zone. On September 28, the Armenian Ministry of Defence (MoD) announced that a SU-25 attack aircraft was shot down by the Turkish F-16 multifunctional fighter; the pilot perished.

In the opinion of Alexander Iskandaryan, a political analyst and Director of the Caucasian Institute, there is a risk that hostilities in the Karabakh conflict zone may move into the territory of Armenia.

According to Mr Iskandaryan, the confrontation with Armenia may lead to Russia's involvement in the conflict. "Russia has a format of relations both with Armenia and Azerbaijan; and both countries are of interest to Russia. But if there is a serious real attack on Armenia, Russia, as well as the CSTO (Collective Security Treaty Organization), will have to react," the political analyst believes.

According to Ara Papyan, a political analyst and the head of the "Modus Vivendi" Centre, we see an attempt to involve Russia in the conflict, "which, in turn, will cause Turkey to do the same." "Azerbaijan understands that it cannot defeat Armenia alone. Therefore, it is very important for the Azerbaijani side to involve Turkey in the war. But then the conflict will acquire a regional scale," he has stated.

However, as Mr Papyan believes, Russia and the CSTO will most likely confine themselves to traditional calls for peace and truce.

This article was originally published on the Russian page of 24/7 Internet agency ‘Caucasian Knot’ on September 30, 2020 at 04:38 am MSK. To access the full text of the article, click here.