Analysts doubt arrangements

Recent news about the settlement of the Nagorno-Karabakh issue has acquired a special shade in the enclave itself. Many Nagorno-Karabakh politicians refuse to comment on settlement-related statements on the ground that Nagorno-Karabakh is not involved in the negotiation process. Nagorno-Karabakh Foreign Minister Arman Melikian told Nagorno-Karabakh Public TV in an interview that not even preliminary arrangements, including the return of the Karabakh-controlled territories to Azerbaijan, can be discussed without the consent of the government and people of the enclave. He said Armenia did not actually control the disputed territories, but Nagorno-Karabakh did, so it was up to the unrecognised republic to decide.

An analyst in Nagorno-Karabakh whom Caucasian Knot asked to comment on the statement that the seven disputed districts would be returned to Azerbaijan said it was absurd at least because two of them, the Kashatag (Lachin) and Kelbajar districts, are vital for Nagorno-Karabakh as they ensure land communication with Armenia and water and territorial security of the republic. The world community understands that. In the analyst's view, one could think there is some progress in negotiations at first when the matter was just about five districts, but now one can be sure the matter is not even about preliminary arrangements.

Another Nagorno-Karabakh analyst believes talks between Armenia and Azerbaijan are meaningless at all in conditions when the government of Nagorno-Karabakh says it is up to the enclave to decide on territories, status and other key issues. There is always a risk Nagorno-Karabakh will not ratify Armenian-Azerbaijani agreement. And the refusal of Azerbaijan to see Nagorno-Karabakh representatives at the negotiating table is perplexing.

Caucasian Knot's expert emphasised there is another fact that gives evidence of the absence of arrangements between Armenia and Azerbaijan. The stationing of American military bases in Azerbaijan has been widely discussed lately. But while a part of these bases were said to be stationed in Nagorno-Karabakh controlled territories a year ago, other areas are mentioned presently. That is, the issue of territories is most likely to remain frozen.

All that means the situation will remain tense, ceasefire breaches will continue leading to more killed and wounded, and there will always be a danger of a new major conflict.

• Ceasefire violated, shortly after positive statements
• Fragile peace aged 11